KNeCS Strategy Modelling Report

Kenya has made significant progress in electrification, achieving a 75% coverage rate by 2022, primarily from renewable sources. Despite this, most Kenyans still rely on polluting fuels for cooking. The Kenya National eCooking Strategy aims to bridge this gap by promoting the adoption of electric cooking technologies. Developed with support from the Rapid Response Facility Consortium, this strategy complements the Kenya National Cooking Transitions Strategy (KNCTS) and sets ambitious targets to transition from traditional cooking methods to sustainable, modern eCooking solutions. This initiative is expected to improve public health, create jobs, promote gender equity, and reduce CO2 emissions.

This document details the modelling approaches and findings used to inform the interventions within the eCooking Strategy. It utilises data collected during the KNeCS Baseline Study (2023), and is designed to explore key research questions that have emerged during the strategy development process.

The modelling effort for KNeCS utilised two major tools: Open Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) and the Benefits of Action to Reduce Household Air Pollution (BAR-HAP) tool. OSeMOSYS is a comprehensive energy modelling tool used for scenario analysis. In this context, it was employed to forecast trends in energy demand and fuel shares between 2019 and 2050, producing insights from four scenarios: Business as Usual, Net Zero, Stated Policies, and the eCooking Transition. OSeMOSYS utilizes a bottom-up approach to simulate and analyse energy systems, considering various supply-side and demand-side factors to determine the most efficient energy mix. This approach is particularly relevant to the cooking sector as it helps in understanding the implications of shifting from traditional fuels to electric cooking, assessing the impact on grid capacity and energy demand.

The BAR-HAP (Benefits of Action to Reduce Household Air Pollution) tool was used to complement OSeMOSYS by modelling fuel stacking, transitions from traditional fuels to eCooking, and the associated costs and benefits. BAR-HAP provided detailed insights into the financial costs of adopting eCooking at both the household and the government’s level, as well as the potential benefits in terms of time savings, improved public health, and reduced emissions.While OSeMOSYS and BAR-HAP utilize different methodologies, they were used iteratively to identify the most feasible pathway for scaling eCooking in Kenya. OSeMOSYS focuses on the broader energy system and grid implications, whereas BAR-HAP delves into the detailed dynamics of household fuel use and its impacts. Together, these tools offered complementary insights, enabling a robust and comprehensive assessment of the potential for eCooking to contribute to Kenya’s net zero targets and broader developmental goals.