Evidence in action: Tracing the influence of international energy modelling collaborations on Kenya’s policy landscape

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project details

Evidence in action: Tracing the influence of international energy modelling collaborations on Kenya’s policy landscape 

Research Area

Energy Access

Project Status

Ongoing

Start Date

2025

Project Team

Project Overview

International modelling collaborations shape many energy policy choices in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These collaborations often involve international organisations and donor partners who provide modelling tools, scenarios, and technical assistance that influence national energy planning processes. Yet, there is limited understanding of how such collaborations are structured, how co-creation unfolds, and how externally generated scenarios, tools and assumptions enter national decision processes and ultimately influence energy plans and investment decisions.

This project aims to address this gap by interrogating international energy modelling collaborations in Kenya and their policy influence and providing practical recommendations for making modelling partnerships more responsive.

Research Approach:

The objectives of the project are to:

Map the principal modelling collaborations and analyse how these partnerships are brokered.
Reconstruct key modelling episodes in energy systems planning (e.g the 2015 Master Plan, LCPDP episodes, etc.), identifying who used what evidence, when, and to what effect
Characterise evidence use and the pathways by which methods become institutionalised.
Derive practical design principles or recommendations for future modelling partnerships that strengthen country ownership and policy relevance.

To realise these objectives, a retrospective qualitative case study design focused on Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) and related exercises will be used. Data collection methods used are:

Literature review: of academic articles and grey literature on energy system modelling dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa
Mapping energy modelling approaches: Involves looking at project reports, partnership agreements and any publicly available documents, with an aim to map out actors, models, assumptions, scenarios, use case, etc.
Semi-structured interviews: with LCPDP team members, development partners, consultants and researchers
Stakeholder workshop: energy policy makers and regulators, planners and analysts engaged in energy and power system planning in Kenya. The workshop will help validate interim findings and discuss key issues raised by research and recommendations

Analysis will involve stakeholder & network mapping, and content and thematic coding to trace the process from modelling inputs to decisions making.

Expected outcomes

Explanatory account of how modelling collaborations shape agendas, options and final choices in Kenya’s energy planning, with lessons for other LMICs.
Understanding of how international organisations and collaborations influence policy
Support of nationally embedded processes and strengthened evidence base by engaging with LCPDP team and analysing its processes